South Africa’s victory over Pakistan by two wickets in the first Test at Supersport Park in Centurion at the end of 2024 handed the hosts qualification for the World Test Championship (WTC) final to be played at Lord’s in London in June 2025.
Their opponents will be determined by the outcome of the final Test being played between Australia and India at the SCG in Sydney and potentially, the 2-match series between Australia and Sri Lanka in Sri Lanka at the end of January.
Here are the potential outcomes for Australia, India and Sri Lanka:
Australia: Australia just need to avoid defeat in the final Test to qualify for the final. However, should India triumph, then Australia just need to secure one victory from their two matches against Sri Lanka on the Sub-Continent to secure their place.
India: India need to win the final Test against Australia and hope that Australia do not claim a victory on the Sub-Continent.
Sri Lanka: The slimmest of chances is what the Sri Lankans have. For them to qualify, they need the final Test between Australia and India to end in a draw and then to beat Australia 2-0 at home to qualify.
Considering how the final Test between Australia and India is going, it looks like Sri Lanka are out of the reckoning. India were bowled out for 185 in their first innings and then proceeded to claim a 4-run first innings lead, restricting Australia to 181. In reply, India were 141 for six at stumps on day two, a tender lead of just 145 with four second-innings wickets in hand.
Former England skipper, Michael Vaughn, commented on Fox Cricket, “If you look at South Africa, they’ve got to the final by beating pretty much nobody. I don’t understand the table; I don’t understand the system we have in place.”
“They have beaten Pakistan at home and beaten Sri Lanka at home. I am not against South Africa, but the system has allowed them to get to the final, and they’ve drawn 1-1 against India at home, and they haven’t played England or Australia—I just don’t like the system,” added Vaughn.
South Africa’s red-ball coach, Shukri Conrad, hit back during an interview with ESPNcricinfo before the second Test at Newlands, “I’m never going to apologise for getting into the final,” Conrad told ESPNcricinfo at Newlands, ahead of the second Test against Pakistan. “It’s the biggest thing in this team’s existence. It’s the biggest thing for South African cricket at the moment. It’s the biggest thing for Test cricket, for world cricket, where the right noises are going to start being made.”
All the Test playing nations outside of the Big Three – England, India and Australia – have to live off the scraps that tumble down off the gluttonous table of the Big Three.
The last time the Proteas played more than a 2-match Test series was against Australia in 2022, while the last time they engaged in a 3-match series was back in 2018/19 against Pakistan, while England, Australia and India regularly engage in 4 and 5-match Test series between themselves.
During the current WTC cycle, South Africa have played just 11 matches before the start of the New Year’s Test against Pakistan while Australia have played 16 and India 18. England have played an astounding 22 Tests.
All in all, South Africa will have played 12 Tests at the end of the cycle in February while Australia and India would have played 19 Tests each.
Due to the economic stranglehold that the Triumvirate have on world cricket, South Africa had to dispatch a weakened Test team to New Zealand last January for a 2-match series that they were whitewashed in. This was due to the fact that they prioritized the Betway SA20 competition so as to bolster their coffers.
Had the SA20 not included the top South African players, the SA20 could have been a flop and financially disastrous for Cricket South Africa.
Vaughn commented on this action by writing in his column for the Daily Telegraph, “They took a second team to New Zealand, because they put more importance on T20 cricket and their own league. They decided Test match cricket wasn’t quite as important.”
The Big Three have no issues financially. Their local T20 leagues are catered for during the international cricket calendar while the likes of South Africa, have to put the SA20 ahead of anything else just to try and survive.
“At the moment every team plays a wildly different number of games and that just does not create a balanced outcome or totally fair league table,” Vaughn noted.
So Mr Vaughn, when you create the current state of affairs, do not complain when things don’t go your way!